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IDC sees ramifications of US
economic slide on IT markets in APJ
In a review of the most
recent economic indicators, current IT forecasts, and the economic linkage
of Asia Pacific including Japan (APJ) and US economies, IDC has developed
two scenarios of worsening US economic outlook for lead factors associated
with IT expenditure.
In the first scenario, IDCís research depicts a moderate 1.7 per cent and
0.9 per cent erosion of its current forecasted APJ IT market growth for 2008
and 2009, respectfully, should the US conditions worsen. In dollar terms,
this means US$4.8B and US$7.5B less market potential in 2008 and 2009.
"Even with a slightly less optimistic outlook depicted in our preliminary IT
Market forecasts, a further slide in the US outlook will have noted impact
on the APJ IT Markets", remarks Gary Koch, Associate Vice President of IDCís
Asia/Pacific IT Spending Research.
"Economies with greater participation in fulfilling US consumption will feel
the brunt of a continued downturn more than others in the region. However,
industrial production growth and favorable levels of business investment and
public sector spending in several parts of the region will soften this
downward pressure on IT spending,Ē he says.
IDCís research illustrates that a second more drastic negative scenario for
the US economy would result in a stronger influence on the business outlook
in the APJ economies and would result in as much as US$7.9B and US$13.6B
slashed from IDCís current APJ IT market forecast in 2008 and 2009.
This would push the already very moderate growth rates of IT markets in
Korea and Taiwan into negative territory for 2008. While the decline in
absolute dollars within IDCís projections is substantial in markets like
China and India, the sheer size of these markets diminishes the resulting
impact on their growth rates. Therefore, the APJ regional IT market will
still boast moderate growth in both 2008 and 2009, 3.1 per cent and 5.5 per
cent respectively, according to IDC.
Source:IDC Asia/Pacific IT Spending CIS, 2008